TD Cowen: Strategy’s Billion-Dollar Bitcoin Buys Leave Market Unmoved

According to recent research by TD Cowen, enterprise software company Strategy’s massive bitcoin purchases over the past six months have had minimal influence on the cryptocurrency’s price movements.

Limited Impact on Market Prices

Despite investing billions into BTC, TD Cowen’s analysis reveals that Strategy’s buying activity only averaged about 3.3% of weekly trading volume. This figure spiked above 20% in only a few isolated weeks. Overall, the report indicates that the scale of bitcoin’s global trading volume vastly overshadows Strategy’s acquisition efforts.

Weak Correlation with Price Changes

Further statistical assessment supports this limited impact theory. TD Cowen reported a correlation coefficient of just 28% when comparing Strategy’s weekly purchases to changes in monthly BTC prices—indicating a weak short-term market effect.

Dispelling the Supply Narrative

A popular narrative suggests that Strategy’s purchases exceed the volume of bitcoin being newly mined, which some speculate could create upward price pressure. However, TD Cowen dismisses this concern by emphasizing that:

Secondary trading activity surpasses mining activity by a factor of 20 to 1.
Price dynamics are more significantly influenced by broader market participation, not just by newly mined supply or large buyers.

Shareholder Gains Despite Limited Price Influence

Though Strategy’s trading hasn’t drastically shifted bitcoin’s market value, its approach has benefited shareholders. Since early 2023, the company:

Increased its BTC holdings by over 300%.
Raised its fully diluted share count by less than 100%.
Recently acquired $842 million in BTC through an at-the-market share offering.

Outlook for Continued Accumulation

Strategy still has more than $1.5 billion in available capacity under its current share issuance program, along with board authorization for additional funding. This suggests the company plans to continue its bitcoin-first treasury strategy—regardless of its market impact.

For more details, read the full report on CoinDesk.